Hunter Keay of Wolfe Research offered a very interesting scenario today in which Korean breaks up with Delta and SkyTeam, AA then pursues a 3-way joint venture with JAL and Korean, DL and Alaska break-up, and then eventually AA makes a play for Alaska Airlines. It’s fun to play what-if, but even as the analyst admits, the odds of any of these actually taking place are about 0%…
This is a story about Asia. We see a potential scenario unfolding over the next few years centered around American Airlines and Delta Air Lines’ growth to Asia that ends with American Airlines examining an acquisition of Alaska Air. Here’s how:
Fact: American Airlines and Delta Air Lines both have Asian growth ambitions
Fact: American Airlines is now doing more business with two key Delta Air Lines partners
Fact: Both American Airlines and Delta Air Lines plan on growing a lot out of LAX
Opinion: The Korean Air and Delta Air Lines relationship is worsening
Opinion: The Alaska Air and Delta Air Lines relationship is not great these days
Opinion: We see Korean Air potentially leaving SkyTeam
Opinion: American Airlines might pursue a three-way JV with JAL and Korean Air …which would be a potential ‘check mate’ for oneworld in Asia
Opinion: We see Alaska Air and Delta Air Lines terminating their codeshare in time
Opinion: Alaska Air could join oneworld soon thereafter
Result: American Airlines fortifies its grip on Asia & west coast U.S. by buying Alaska Air
This series of events happening exactly as we laid out is roughly 0%, but we see benefits for Alaska regardless.
- Alaska Airlines – “We’re Not Paying for Delta’s New Seattle Terminal”
- Alaska Disappearing in 2015? Delta CEO – “No Drama. Just Business”
- Alaska Airlines: It’s Time to Make a Deal with Delta – Opinion
- And It Continues…Delta Applies for Seattle (SEA) – Cabo (SJD) Service
- Could American Help Alaska Face the Delta Threat? AS & AA’s New Talks…
- It’s On – Alaska Adds More Salt Lake City Flights
- Here We Go Again – Delta Adds More Seattle Flights
- Delta’s New Seattle Flights – 70% Growth in 1 Year, Alaska Fights Back & Announces SLC Expansion!
- Delta & Alaska – Best Frenemies? The Battle for Seattle
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